These days, unusual activity has gripped the global share markets. Right before Donald Trump’s announcements, stock markets witnessed bursts of trading activity. This has raised concerns about the siphoning of lakhs of crores of rupees in a single session. Recently, such an incident occurred just minutes before Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on potential strikes against Iran. Experts are of the view that this could have generated profits of nearly Rs 840 crore in just 20 minutes. However, they are also questioning whether Trump is deliberately influencing the stock markets.
The spike
As per an NDTV report, on Monday, S&P 500 E-mini futures on the CME witnessed an unexpected spike in trading volumes. At the same time, oil markets also showed synchronized movement. This stood out because pre-market hours are generally quiet, with limited liquidity. Roughly 15 minutes later, Trump posted on Truth Social stating that the United States had engaged in discussions with Iran and would temporarily halt planned attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. By the time this announcement became public, the key trades had already been executed.
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Strategic bets
According to data from Unusual Whales, the trader or group behind these moves placed two strategic bets. The first involved buying S&P 500 futures worth about Rs 12,600 crore, anticipating a market rally if geopolitical tensions eased. The second involved selling oil futures worth approximately Rs 1,615 crore, expecting crude prices to fall if supply concerns diminished. Within a brief one-minute window, nearly 6,200 Brent and WTI futures contracts that valued at around Rs 4,870 crore, were traded. This volume was four to six times higher than typical activity during that time of day.
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Following Trump’s announcement, markets reacted sharply. S&P 500 futures surged over 2.5% before the opening bell, while oil prices dropped significantly. Brent crude declined from $109 to as low as USD 92, and WTI fell nearly 6%, briefly touching USD 88.70 per barrel.
Substantial financial gains
The financial gains from these moves were substantial. Analysts estimate that fluctuations in oil prices alone could have delivered profits exceeding around Rs 840 crore within minutes. Gains from equity positions likely added even more to the total. Experts are particularly surprised because these announcements came without any prior public indication. At the time the trades were placed, there were no news alerts, scheduled announcements, or signals suggesting such a geopolitical development. Despite this, over Rs 14,000 crore was deployed across markets with precise timing.