The results of the Bangladesh elections have now unfolded before the world. Bangladesh, which was a battleground of Begum versus Begum for more than three decades, saw a Rahman versus Rahman contest, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, ultimately scripting a landslide victory.
Meanwhile, Shafiqur Rahman’s Jamaat-e-Islami fell far short in the race for power, and its ally, the National Citizens Party (NCP), born out of the movement against the Sheikh Hasina government, is in silence.
But how did all this happen? Discussions are also underway about what will happen to Bangladesh now? How much will BNP’s Rahman be able to change the course, character, and face of Bangladesh? Has the BNP completely broken free from its old ways?
Questions are also being raised that if Awami League voters have shifted to the BNP? and did the Awami League urge its supporters to vote for the BNP to counter Jamaat-e-Islami?
From India’s perspective, many and wondering what Tarique Rahman’s victory means for our country, and what relationship between Dhaka and Delhi be like in this new environment?
Will Jamaat-e-Islami, which lost its power struggle, once again advance its radical agenda? Will there be violence against Hindus in Bangladesh? Will Tariq Rahman deal with the fundamentalists in the same way as Sheikh Hasina did during her tenure? Will the fundamentalists launch a movement against Tariq Rahman, like they did against Hasina?
Tariq Rahman, who returned to Bangladesh after 17 years abroad, performed remarkably well in the elections. But now he faces a major challenge; managing a Bangladesh that is constantly simmering, entangled, and struggling. Fulfilling the unfulfilled dreams of the youth, restoring relations with neighboring countries, and restoring true democracy in the country.
India’s interest in its eastern neighbor, Bangladesh, has several reasons. First, India and Bangladesh share a border of over four thousand kilometers. Second, there are many unfenced points between the two countries. Third, whenever there is unrest or violence in Bangladesh, the threat of infiltration into India increases. Fourth, India played a major role in Bangladesh’s emergence as a nation.
Therefore, India always wants stability, peace, prosperity, and a democratically elected government in Bangladesh, so bilateral issues can be resolved through dialogue. The BNP won a landslide victory in the February 12 elections, a feat neither Tarique Rahman nor his party leaders could have anticipated. So, did the Awami League’s exit from the electoral arena contribute to the BNP’s landslide victory, and why did the people of Bangladesh reject the radical Jamaat-e-Islami?
BNP won more than two-thirds of the seats in the elections, but there was no celebration. No noise. No victory procession, as if nothing had happened. This is the new path of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by Tariq Rahman.
On Friday, after Friday prayers, special prayer meetings were held in mosques across Bangladesh, with Rahman seen leaving the leaving the mosque after Friday prayers. The people of Bangladesh have given their verdict, and now the responsibility of fulfilling their dreams rests on Tarique’s shoulders. His swearing-in as Prime Minister is expected on February 16th.
Bangladesh elections were a direct contest between Tarique Rahman’s BNP and Shafiqur Rahman’s Jamaat-e-Islami. Both parties had formed alliances with several smaller parties. However, the people of Bangladesh trusted the moderate Tarique Rahman more than the radical Jamaat-e-Islami.
Five major reasons are believed to be behind Tarique Rahman’s sweeping victory; Awami League’s exclusion from the electoral process, Awami League’s Hindu voters switching to the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami’s failure to shake past demons, including its support for the Pakistan army during the Liberation War, internal strife within the students-led NCP over its alliance with Jamaat, and women voters choosing liberal BNP over the radical Jamaat-e-Islami.
Notably, the Jamaat-e-Islami attempted to shed its fundamentalist image, but to win over the majority of Bangladesh’s population, even as its manifesto showed its softened stance on women rights and also hinted at a shift in foreign policy.
Meanwhile, efforts are being made to fuel rumors of electoral irregularities and rigging, and its believed students and their affiliates who protested against the Sheikh Hasina government in July 2024 also voted for the BNP instead of the Jamaat.
Reports of meetings between the US and top Jamaat leaders is also believed to have contributed to Jamaat-e-Islami’s losses in the elections, with BNP highlighting an alleged “secret deal” between Washington and Jamaat as a major election issue.
The BNP campaigned vigorously that if the Jamaat came to power, it would pose a significant threat to Bangladesh’s peace and security. Tarique Rahman’s every move paid off, and now he is the new face of power in Bangladesh.
Rahman, who returned to Bangladesh after 17 years, pursued a strategy that connected with youth and middle-class voters. In less than 50 days, the 60-year-old portrayed himself as calm leader with clear policies and intentions.
The BNP arguably also benefited from the wave of sympathy generated after the death of his mother, Begum Khaleda Zia.
Once upon a time the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami were considered to have little difference in their ideologies, and even formed a coalition government in Dhaka. However, in 2026, the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami faced off as political rivals.
Today, Tarique Rahman presents a more moderate face in Bangladeshi politics than his mother, Begum Khaleda Zia. However, the question is, will the fundamentalists allow Tarique Rahman to rule peacefully? Will the Jamaat’s radical brigade not attempt to replicate the situation in Dhaka in July 2024? One of the challenges facing Rahman is to deal with the radicalism.
Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman’s hopes were dashed as his strategies and secret deals failed catapult the group to power. The radical Jamaat brigade launched a violent movement to overthrow the Sheikh Hasina government nearly a year and a half ago, but it was BNP which reaped the gains, which means the Jamaat is unlikely to stay silent for long.
Tarique Rahman may have returned to his homeland after 17 years, but he understands the dynamics of power intimately. Rahman, the son of three-time Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Zia-ur Rahman, is also familiar with the DNA of Jamaat leaders.
During Khaleda Zia’s reign between 2001 and 2006, Tarique had emerged as one of the most influential figures in the country, and was considered by many as the ‘shadow prime minister’. It was said that no major policy decision was made without his consent – this was the period when the BNP and Jamaat were in alliance. In such a situation, how far can Jamaat leaders, distraught by defeat, go? This is something that Tarique Rahman, the seasoned political player he is, must be calculating.
Although Jamaat leaders appeared to be trying to connect with minority Hindus during the elections, the fact remains that its radical brigade is often at the forefront of attacks on minorities in Bangladesh. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising if, frustrated by their defeat, the radicals resort to their old formula to advance their religious agenda. In the future, Rahman will face a significant challenge in stopping their hateful and violent agenda.
Tarique Rahman is returning to power by promising a new Bangladesh to the youth, but his biggest challenge will be to improve the country’s economic health, providing maximum employment for the youth, revitalizing Bangladesh’s cotton and other industries, and providing women with full opportunities for advancement.
If Rahman fails to fulfill the expectations of the country’s youth and finds a way to quell the fire of discontent within them, the opposition Jamaat leaders may once again leverage the youth to capitalize on that discontent, just as they did against Sheikh Hasina, which came to power with a landslide in July 2024.
Another major challenge will be to deal with radical left in Bangladesh, as Tarique must find ways to strengthen democracy in Bangladesh, and those who foster hatred and extremist ideologies must be dealt with in the same way as they were during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure.
Tarique Rahman understands the minds of Bangladesh’s youth, what the women want, and where tough and important decisions need to be taken to provide employment to the country’s unemployed.
Relations between Dhaka and Delhi have soured since Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Muhammad Yunus, the internal government’s leader, leaned toward Pakistan and China and patronized fundamentalists. His connections with Jamaat-e-Islami leaders were no secret.
However, the people of Bangladesh rejected his anti-India stance, but it is believed that Tarique Rahman will choose to improve relations with India. as signs of improved chemistry between Delhi and Dhaka have begun to emerge.
Tarique Rahman is well aware of the challenges his Bangladesh faces. The very chair he is about to occupy is laced with innumerable thorns. Therefore, Bangladesh’s problems cannot be alleviated without fostering better relations with powerful neighbors like India. Perhaps that’s why signals of improved relations between Delhi and Dhaka are already emerging.
Rahman understands well that to become a successful PM, he needs India’s support, given the current situation in Bangladesh, he would at least not want to antagonize India. More than 90% of Bangladesh shares its border with India, which means Rahman’s “Bangladesh First” agenda cannot be achieved without support from New Delhi.
The two countries share common interests on issues such as trade, border management, infiltration, smuggling, river water sharing, and security cooperation. The Teesta River water sharing dispute is a longstanding issue, yet to be fully resolved. The Ganges Water Treaty is also due for renewal before December this year. Consequently, a better chemistry between Delhi and Dhaka is expected on issues of mutual interest.
Relations between Dhaka and Delhi were very good during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure. The deposed former PM has been living in India since the coup in August 2024. Subsequently, the head of the interim government, Muhammad Yunus, increased close ties with China and Pakistan. Meetings and agreements between Beijing and Dhaka were evident. Meanwhile, the warmth of Delhi-Dhaka relations has waned.
History has shown that whenever the BNP has ruled Bangladesh, relations between Delhi and Dhaka have fluctuated. However, the issue of Sheikh Hasina’s extradition could lead to a diplomatic tug-of-war. It is believed that Jamaat-e-Islami may pressure Rahman to extradite Sheikh Hasina from India. Similar voices are also expected to emerge from within the BNP. Consequently, the issue of Sheikh Hasina could lead to a diplomatic tug-of-war between Delhi and Dhaka in the future.
If Tarique Rahman wants better relations with New Delhi and sees a better future for Bangladesh through better relations with Delhi, he must stop any aggressive rhetoric against India. To strengthen business ties, he must stand with India in accordance with the changes taking place in the global order, and must crack down on extremists to maintain stability in Bangladesh.
He must stop all forms of illegal smuggling and activities along the more than 4,000-kilometer border with India, and needs to seriously address the issue of economic migration from Bangladesh to India as well as take concrete steps to stop attacks on minority Hindus in Bangladesh.
History bears witness that China has shown no hesitation in exploiting the crisis in Delhi-Dhaka relations, either openly or otherwise.
Jamaat-e-Islami leaders have long-standing connections with Pakistan, and It remains to be seen what diplomatic means Tarique Rahman uses to keep Dhaka completely free from the influence of Islamabad and Beijing.
The BNP stated in its election manifesto that it will pursue “Bangladesh First” in its foreign policy, which is common for most nations as national interest is always prioritized.
However, Tarique Rahman made another crucial statement about his foreign policy, bluntly stating, “Friends, yes, master, no”, implying the BNP dispensation will welcome friends, but won’t tolerate arrogance.
Tarique Rahman intends to move forward with the intention of distancing Dhaka from the influence and arrogance of countries like the US, China, and Pakistan. Consequently, the Delhi-Dhaka relationship is likely to resemble the one it enjoyed during Sheikh Hasina’s rule. The truth is that in diplomacy, the opposite of what is said on public platforms is the underlying strategy.
While the BNP is returning to power with a landslide majority, a vital question still resonates in the air: has the Awami League been wiped out of Bangladeshi politics?
Tarique Rahman was forced to leave the country 17 years ago due to allegations of graft. What if a similar situation arises again? In this situation, attention is focused on two individuals: Tarique Rahman’s wife, Dr. Zubaida Rahman, and his daughter, 28-year-old daughter Zaima Rahman, who was seen campaigning for the BNP.
Sheikh Hasina is 78 years old, and her Awami League is currently banned in Bangladesh. Now, speculation is rife whether her son, Sajeeb Wazed, or daughter, Saima Wazed, could take over the reins of the party, and whether Bangladesh’s politics in the future revolve around a daughter versus daughter battle.
Rahman is being discussed as much for the BNP’s landslide victory as his daughter, Zaima Rahman as its believed that she was the one who put forth the idea of connecting directly with the people during BNP’s campaign, which included initiative like “Chayer Adda”.
Zaima, a law graduate from Queen Mary University of London, campaigned on a rickshaw, and was always seen in traditional attire during the campaign. This image of a cultured daughter likely resonated with the people.
Today, 28-year-old is seen as the voice of women in Bangladesh, while Rahman’s wife, Dr. Zubaida, who has stood by her husband through thick and thin, also appeared with him during the election campaign. The mother-daughter duo are believed to have played a major role in mobilizing female voters for the BNP, and many believeZaima Rahman could become a prominent figure in Bangladeshi politics in the future.
There’s also debate in Bangladesh about what will happen to the Awami League. Those familiar with Bangladesh’s political landscape believe Tarique Rahman has two options; lift the ban on the Awami League, or continue to keep the party out of the country’s electoral picture.
Analysts believe Rahman would like the Awami League to enter the fray in the future, thus marginalizing Jamaat in Bangladeshi politics, which raises the question of who will lead Hasina’s party after her? All eyes are now on Hasina’s children, her son Sajeeb Wazed and daughter Saima Wazed.
Sajeeb Wazed, currently living in the US, says the door to dialogue with the BNP is open, while Saima Wazed, who served in Russia as the World Health Organization’s Regional Director for South-East Asia, is also seen as a bright prospect for Bangladeshi politics.
For the past 35 years, politics in Bangladesh has revolved around a rivalry between Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina. Now, the country will be led by a man, Tarique Rahman. However, there are growing rumors that in the future, Bangladesh politics could revolve around a Zaima versus Saima scenario.
Nothing is impossible in politics and diplomacy. After the Awami League came to power with a landslide majority in January 2024, Sheikh Hasina could not have imagined that she would have to resign as Prime Minister and flee the country within just seven or eight months.
The student leaders who overthrew the Sheikh Hasina government could not have imagined that their party’s seats would not reach double digits, while the leaders of Jamaat-e-Islami couldn’t have possibly anticipated such a mass wave in favor of the BNP.
However, the people of Bangladesh chose the liberal and democratic Tarique Rahman over the fundamentalists, but now the real challenge facing the 60-year-old leader is how well he lives up to the expectations of the people of Bangladesh, and how much he can improve ties with India.
Rahman will also have to actively keep Dhaka free from the growing influence of Beijing and Islamabad, and conscientiously play a role in controlling illegal activities along the more than 4,000-kilometer-long India-Bangladesh border.
Minority Hindus in Bangladesh are wondering whether they are safe now or if attacks by extremists will increase. Rahman means “kind”, so the future of their Bangladesh will largely depend on his priority list of kindness.
Bangladesh’s Tarique Rahman has the responsibility to honestly correct the mistakes that have been made in the country in the past.
