Bharat Ek Soch: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s team is busy preparing the budget for 2026-27. The common man is wondering whether this year’s budget will make life easier or harder. Statistics play a crucial role in understanding the state of any country’s economy, but economists and policymakers often manipulate them to suit their convenience. But does this manipulation of figures actually make any difference to the lives of ordinary people? Do the figures for GDP and per capita income truly reflect the complete picture of people’s well-being?
How many jobs or employment opportunities have people gained in the last few years? What kind of employment have they found? Will artificial intelligence eliminate jobs or create unemployment? What kind of economy is taking shape in the age of AI? What kind of work will most young people be engaged in? How much will they earn from that work? What role is the youth playing in increasing production in the country? In a technology-first world, how many people will be prosperous and how many will be struggling?
In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), India is among the world’s five largest economies and is rapidly striving to reach the third position. India’s GDP growth rate is several times higher than that of the United States, and significantly higher than that of China, Japan, and Germany. However, when considering per capita income, India doesn’t even rank among the world’s top 10 economies, nor the top 25, or even the top 50. India’s ranking falls below 100.
To understand the internal state of the Indian economy, it is crucial to consider another set of figures. According to the Global Inequality Report 2026, the wealthiest 10 percent of India’s population owns 65 percent of the total wealth, with the top one percent alone holding 40 percent. The top 10 percent of the population accounts for 58 percent of the total income, while the bottom 50 percent, the economically weaker sections, together earn only 15 percent. This indicates that the economic growth of the past few years has largely benefited the rich, while the poor have seen comparatively little improvement. As India approaches its 100th anniversary of independence in 2047, and continues its trajectory towards becoming a developed nation, it is essential to reflect on what kind of India is emerging.
India is changing rapidly, cities are evolving, villages are transforming, and lifestyles are shifting. Even the way work is done in offices is undergoing a transformation. India is racing to join the ranks of developed countries by 2047. The vibrancy of Indian markets and rising sales figures are being interpreted in different ways. The country is considered one of the most attractive markets in the world for consumption upgrades, and many argue that the Indian economy has moved beyond merely meeting basic needs.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has projected India’s GDP growth rate to be 7.4% in 2025-26. The surge in the manufacturing, construction, and service sectors is considered the reason behind this increased growth rate. The question now arises: what kind of development will India witness by 2047, the 100th anniversary of its independence? The world’s largest economy, the US, with a GDP of $30.62 trillion, has a growth rate of 2%. China is second with a GDP of $19.4 trillion and a growth rate of 4.8%. Germany’s economy is third, with a GDP of $5.1 trillion and a growth rate of 0.2%. India follows with a GDP of $4.18 trillion and a growth rate of 6.6%. Japan is fifth with a GDP of $4.1 trillion and a growth rate of around 1.1%. A recent report on economic inequality indicates that despite the economic growth surge in India, inequality in society has increased.
The top 10 percent of earners in India take home approximately 58 percent of the country’s income, while the bottom 50 percent of the population accounts for only 15 percent. The wealthiest 10 percent own about 65 percent of the total wealth, with the top 1 percent alone possessing 40 percent. Current trends indicate that in the rapidly changing global economy, the rich in our country are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer. According to the data, from 1951 to 1980, the share of the top 10 percent of earners in India’s total income ranged between 33 and 35 percent. Between 1980 and 2000, the share of the top 10 percent of wealthy individuals in income reached 40 percent, and it now stands at 58 percent.
If the share of income held by the rich has increased, it also means that the share of income held by the poor has decreased. Today, India has the largest youth population in the world. However, the harsh reality is that a large segment of our youth is unemployed or underemployed, they do not have jobs commensurate with their qualifications. A significant portion of this group has only nominal employment. Economists try to understand how much India is benefiting from its vast youth population, each using their own perspective. But what kind of situation is developing within our social fabric? This cannot be understood solely through statistics.
Understanding it through statistics would be like dividing a 100-degree temperature into two parts and looking at the average – if one foot is in the 100-degree part, it will surely burn. If the other foot is in the zero-degree part, it will surely freeze. But if you calculate the average temperature between both feet, the situation won’t seem dire, because at 50 degrees, there’s no risk of burning or freezing. Economic inequality is increasing to such an extent in our society that one segment has accumulated wealth far exceeding its economic needs, while another segment has to rely on government schemes, including the 5 kg of free food grains provided monthly, just to meet its basic needs.
Under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, launched in 2020, more than 81 crore people are receiving free rations. Under the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme, launched in 2019, more than 11 crore farmers are receiving an annual cash transfer of Rs. 6000. Under the Ujjwala Yojana, launched in 2016, more than 10.33 crore women have received free LPG connections. Many such schemes of the central and state governments are ongoing, proving helpful in making the daily lives of the poor easier. Amid the whirlwind of technological advancements and the rapid pace of economic activity, the economically privileged are reaping the greatest benefits. However, a rapidly growing segment of our society is emerging, one that is left behind, forced to rely on government assistance to meet their basic daily needs.
Just before the assembly elections in Bihar, the Nitish government launched a scheme that transferred Rs. 10,000 cash to the accounts of more than 1.5 crore women in the state. Social security pensions in Bihar were also increased from Rs. 400 to Rs. 1100. Similar schemes providing monthly cash transfers to women are also running in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. This raises the question: on one hand, a shining, prosperous India… and on the other, a large population dependent on free government schemes… will this development model truly propel India into the ranks of developed nations?
For the past few years, there has been an emphasis in India on creating a class of people who are not job seekers, but rather job creators. Both the government and the general public are viewing jobs and employment through different lenses. Therefore, political parties now cleverly promise to create employment opportunities instead of simply promising jobs during elections. Government schemes providing micro-credit loans help improve the employment figures. But what kind of employment is actually created by these schemes, and how much do they truly improve people’s lives? Everyone seems to have their own perspective on this.
A study suggests that by 2047, India’s per capita income will increase nearly sevenfold, meaning the average income will be around Rs 15 lakh. But the question is, will everyone’s income increase, or only that of a select few in society? Will the living standards of the poorest in society improve at the same rate as those of the wealthiest? Will the gap between the rich and the poor narrow in a developed India, or will it widen further?
On one hand, there is the goal of creating a developed India by 2047, reflected in impressive economic figures. On the other hand, there are provisions such as free food grains every month, monthly cash assistance for women, periodic transfers to poor farmers, and social security pensions for the elderly. Can the mission of building a developed India coexist with the politics of freebies?
About a year and a half ago, I asked Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman about freebies in an interview. She unequivocally stated that eliminating freebies is everyone’s responsibility. But have political parties seriously discussed this issue among themselves? Has the government taken any significant steps in this regard? Recent elections indicate that the culture of freebies is becoming increasingly entrenched in our democratic system.
A few weeks ago, world-renowned tech tycoon Elon Musk claimed that in the next 10-20 years, robots will perform all human tasks. This, he said, would eliminate poverty in the future and people would not need to save money. AI would create a world where every human being receives a universal high income. However, there are also concerns that technology, AI, and robotics will increase economic inequality in the world. According to a NITI Aayog report, the tech sector, which currently employs 8 million people, could see approximately 2 million jobs affected by AI. However, AI is also expected to create 4 million new jobs. Another study suggests that 20 to 25 million jobs in India could be at risk by 2030, particularly in the manufacturing, retail, and finance sectors.
In India, with its population of 1.4 billion, there is hardly any sector left where AI is not being used to any extent. Not only large industries but small-scale industries are also using AI to increase production. A large segment of society has the misconception that AI will eliminate jobs. However, the truth is that AI will change the nature of jobs more than it will eliminate them. While some jobs will be lost, new types of jobs will also be created. The rapidly changing trends in the global job market indicate that high-paying jobs such as AI specialists, data scientists, and prompt engineers are growing rapidly. AI is rapidly transforming jobs, but repetitive and low-skilled jobs are most at risk.
In 2020-21, the number of gig workers in India was approximately 7.7 million, representing 1.5% of the country’s total workforce. By 2024-25, the Indian economy is projected to have 12 million gig workers, accounting for around 2% of the workforce. By 2029-30, the number of gig workers in India is expected to reach 23.5 million, potentially comprising 4% of the workforce. Economists argue that gig workers always have the flexibility to choose how much and when they want to work. Earnings are determined by the amount of work done, and this employment model is proving particularly attractive to young people. According to estimates, around 1.4 million drivers are associated with the ride-hailing company Uber in India. Ola, another company in the same sector, has a network of approximately 1 million drivers. Swiggy has 450,000 delivery partners, while quick commerce brands like Zomato and Blinkit have around 700,000 to 800,000 active delivery partners.
Technology plays a crucial role in connecting gig workers with companies and customers. Therefore, there are varying predictions about how AI will impact the gig economy, whether it will lead to growth or decline, and what kind of transformation it will bring about. It is also true that when young people, despite having high educational qualifications, are unable to find suitable jobs, they often turn to the gig economy in urban areas to earn a living.
How many jobs will generative AI eliminate, and how many new jobs will it create? Tech tycoons and economists are trying to answer this question in their own ways. However, one thing is certain: the more AI expands, the more the nature of jobs will change. The era of generative AI and humanoid robots will require new kinds of skills for employment. Although the Ministry of Labour and Employment’s 2025 figures claim that 16.83 million new jobs were added between 2017-18 and 2023-24, the harsh reality is that a large portion of India’s young workforce is unemployed. Most of them possess degrees from schools and colleges that are not proving very helpful in securing jobs in the current job market. This raises the question: what is India’s unemployed youth doing? There was a time when, if young people couldn’t find jobs elsewhere, they would engage in agricultural work instead of remaining idle.
Traditionally, young people in India engaged in agricultural production, dedicating their energy to continuing their family’s ancestral work. However, the internet has transformed the thinking and aspirations of today’s youth. When jobs commensurate with their education are hard to find, many young people now see a career as digital creators. Platforms like YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram have provided a new way to stay productive, some create videos and reels, while a large majority spend their time watching them. This trend has become both a hobby and a source of employment. Internet culture has also given rise to a new social class known as “influencers”, reshaping India’s social fabric.
In India, which has the world’s largest youth population, there are 384 million Facebook users and 491 million YouTube users. From cities to villages, social media has become the cheapest form of entertainment for people. Smartphones have become their closest friends and relatives, serving as their teachers and guides for learning and understanding. In India, young people also see platforms like YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram as the easiest way to earn money. Social media has, in a way, given a platform to the last person in society to raise their voice, and it has shown educated youth the path to becoming influencers. It has provided a new career option as digital creators. However, the reality is that the success rate in terms of earnings is not very high.
From cities to villages, there’s a large number of educated young people who are unemployed. With no jobs or employment opportunities, these idle young people are left with two options: watching and creating short videos and reels. All they need is a smartphone with an internet connection. In this situation, unemployed youth see becoming a digital creator as a viable option for earning a living. Every creator works tirelessly for hours every day, believing that nothing comes without effort and that perseverance will eventually lead to success. Riding on the wings of their dreams, these creators envision earning millions. However, the reality is that, excluding a handful of successful YouTube channels, fewer than 100,000 active YouTube channels in India actually manage to earn any income each month.
India has set a goal of becoming a developed nation by 2047. However, the potential of our youth is not being fully utilised. In the name of employment and future prospects, most young people see opportunities as digital creators. Therefore, if India is to join the ranks of developed nations in the next 21 years, a path must be forged that connects the youth to the production process in all sectors. The fear of AI must be removed from the minds of young people. Technology must be seen as a friend, not an enemy.
If we truly want to make India a developed nation by 2047, and maintain its status as the world’s strongest democracy and a thriving republic, we must focus on a Skill-First Economy. The rapidly evolving AI-driven world order and job market will demand dynamic, fast-learning professionals. In this context, two types of educational institutions will be essential in the future: one that prepares the workforce for the rapidly changing global landscape, and another that upgrades and updates the active workforce every three to four years through crash courses.
Today, there are over 35 million people of Indian origin spread across the globe and this number could increase manifold. In such a scenario, it is difficult to build an equitable, harmonious, and prosperous nation without integrating the young population into the country’s production ecosystem. If every hand doesn’t find work commensurate with its capabilities, then no matter how large India’s GDP figures appear by 2047, and no matter how high the per capita income graph rises, the gap between the rich and the poor in society will only widen. Therefore, in light of the rapidly changing global landscape, we must choose a path that ensures the participation of even the last person in society in the production process.
